Nonrenewable+Energy

From James Rodewald The recent Earth Island article on tar sands, "Crudeconundrum", can be viewed at: []

From: Tom Wellnitz Here are some data to considerwhen presenting oil information. I put some of this together afterfinding only minimal coverage in several AP environmental books. Most ofthe numbers come from a report by the UK Energy Research Center: //GlobalOil Depletion // //An assessment of the evidence for anear-term // //peak in global oil production ////, August 2009 //

1. World oil production is around 85 Million barrels per day.

2. USA oil consumption is around 19 Mb/d.

3. Most of the world's oil comes from a few very large fields. 25% ofthe production comes from 25 fields, 500 (out of a total 70,000 fields) produce2/3 of the discovered oil. Most of these 500 fields are past peakproduction, with estimates that 2/3 of the world's current production will needto be replaced by 2030.

4. In 2009, new finds equal to production value of 3 Mb/d need to be broughton line per year to equal yearly loses from declining production from existingfields. A 3 Mb/d production means something equal to the output of theSaudia Arabia oil fields every three years. In other words, new 3Mb/d per year just to keep us where we are, without fulfilling new demand.

5. The last three truly big oil fields were discovered around 1970. Two ofthese, the Prudhoe Bay in Alaska and North Sea are in decline stage. (I forgetthe third one, but it is also in decline.) For example, the Prudhoe Baywas estimated to contain 13 Billion barrels, 11 Billion of which have beenpumped out. At peak output Prudhoe Bay was putting out 1.5 Mb/d. Inrecent years, it is less than 0.3 Mb/d. As someone said, if you'relooking for a pitchfork in a hay stack you find it more easily than finding aneedle. Most oil people don't expect to find anymore pitchforks.

6. The UKERC report concludes that peak oil will occur sometime between 2009and 2030 with a strong possibility of it occurring before 2020.

7. Generally, there are three options for dealing with oil decline.  A. Use less  B. Try to increase supply  C. Find alternatives.

<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.66px;">8. With regards to alternatives, most of the energy alternatives that we hear much about -- wind and solar -- produce electricity.

<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.66px;">9. With regards to supply, using US Energy Information Administration Data,since 1976, only in 2001 were new supplies discovered in the US greater than 1Billion barrels expected output. (2001 = 1.407 Billion barrelsdiscovered.) Supply is pretty much fixed through 2016, a reflection ofhow it can take to bring on new production. Over 50% of the US oilconsumption is imported.

<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.66px;">10. With regards to alternatives, the transition from petroleum to a new fuel will not be like transitions from wood to coal and coal to oil, in that thosewere transitions to more energy rich fuels. The most promising areas are biofuels from non food crops, none of which are being produced in anywhere the tens of Mb/d petroleum equivalent needed to replace petroleum.

<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.66px;">11. With regards to use, the US auto fleet still averages lower than 25 mpg. New CAFE numbers bring this to 35 mpg by 2016, but the lifetime of manycars is ten years or longer, so it might be 2020 or 2025 before most US cars onthe road are getting 35 mpg. With a stagnant economy, many new car sales may be put off longer. (Numbers of cars/light trucks/SUV around 250 Mfor US). The Toyota Prius with its official mpg of 48, hit the 1 M markin the US early in 2011 after being on the market for over ten years.

<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.66px;">12. Much of the increase in world oil demand is coming from Asian countries,especially China.

<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.66px;">13. In the United States, approximately 95% of the transportation sector energy comes from petroleum. Petroleum is vital to the production and transportation of agricultural products. Electricity will not operate heavy trucks and airplanes; for the most part, it presently doesn't operate cars, with the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt just starting sales this year. The Tesla Roadster will not be seen in large numbers anywhere in the United States

<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.66px;">14. Many people feel that a smooth transition off of petroleum, including onereport done for the US Dept. of Energy <span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 8px;">Hirsch, R. L., R. Bezdek, and R.Wendling. (2005). "Peaking of world oil production: impacts, mitigation, & riskmanagement." 91. US Department of Energy, National Energy Technologies Laboratory. <span style="font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.66px;">sayit can take 10-20 years.

<span style="font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.66px;">Personal commentary: What are we doing about this? What can happen to theUnited States in the next ten years, if gasoline goes to $6 or $8 a gallon? How can we begin to prepare for this transition? Do AP Env.students understand how this might affect their lives before they double theirage? While I believe global climate change is the biggest challengefacing the globe (reading Bill McKibben describing the methane bubbles aroundhis ship on a 2009 visit to the Arctic ocean and methane bubbles in Siberianlakes is truly scary in that this tipping point may be passed), I think the USis going to see problems with oil as a much bigger effect on our lives.

<span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif;">From: Kathy H. Carmel, IN <span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif;">I found a neat assignment here: (begining page 11) []. Students broke into groups- each group had a renewable energy source, and they each took a role: environmentalist, economist, sociologist, scientist. Each wrote a short paper about the energy source from their point of view and they presented one PowerPoint to the class. It was a great assignment and many became passionate about "their" energy source.

<span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif;">From: Mary Beth Nawor, Lake Forest High School We need to make sure as science teachers that we actually have the facts correct as there is a lot of hysteria out there regarding nuclear energy. A colleague of mine who is our physics teacher has started a blog which he updates daily to focus on the science and the actual amount of radiation being released. You can follow his posts if you are interested []

From: **//John Blackmer,//** **//Shattuck-St. Mary’s School//** During the spill last year, The Daily Show put together an excellent piece on how each of the last 8 presidents have vowed to wean us off foreign oil. Funny and poignant: []

From Tom Wellnitz